There’s no shortage of sober headlines about Nigeria’s economic journey. Over the past few years, policymakers in Abuja have taken bold steps to steady an economy in distress — removing long-standing fuel subsidies, liberalising the foreign exchange market and tightening fiscal policy. These measures have won praise from global institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF, which say the country has avoided a fiscal crisis and restored some macroeconomic balance.
But with every stride towards stability, there’s been a simultaneous squeeze on everyday Nigerians — especially the poorest.
According to the World Bank’s most recent Nigeria Development Update, Nigeria has made progress in stabilising its economy — the currency situation is steadier and foreign reserves are healthier than they were a couple of years ago.
Yet this “progress” hasn’t translated into better living standards for millions of Nigerians. High inflation — particularly in food prices — continues to erode household budgets. Many families spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food, and even modest price rises can push them deeper into hardship.
As one World Bank director put it recently: reducing inflation remains the single most critical step to stop poverty rising further.
Perhaps the starkest indicator of the disconnect between macroeconomic data and lived experience is the number of Nigerians in poverty. Despite stabilisation policies, latest estimates suggest around 139 million people — roughly half the population — live below the poverty line.
This isn’t a small shift. In 2019, far fewer Nigerians were counted as poor; today, that figure has ballooned even as headline economic growth ticks up.
Economic reforms like removing the fuel subsidy have clear logic: they ease the strain on government finances and can free up funds for investment. But the immediate effect has been exactly what critics warned about — a sharp increase in the cost of living for ordinary people, who are already stretched thin.
The IMF, while supportive of the overall stabilisation path, has repeatedly urged the government to pair reform with strong social protections — targeted support for the most vulnerable so that the pain doesn’t fall too heavily on those least able to bear it.
Economists argue that stabilising an economy is one thing; ensuring that ordinary people feel the benefits is another. Some suggest rethinking aspects of policy, including targeted subsidies or scaled-up cash transfers, to cushion the blow for poorer households.
Local chambers of commerce also stress that while reforms were necessary, the pace and sequencing matter — slow, predictable changes could give businesses and consumers time to adjust rather than being blindsided by price shocks.
So, Can Nigeria Do It? The short answer is: yes, but it’s far from guaranteed.
Nigeria can stabilise its economy without hurting the poor — but only if stabilisation is linked with strong social safety nets, inclusive growth strategies and investment in sectors like agriculture and job creation. Economic stability alone, without attention to inequality and living standards, risks leaving the most vulnerable further behind.
In the end, the debate isn’t just about numbers in a budget — it’s about food on the table, school fees paid, and lives made dignified. For many Nigerians today, those are still the greatest unresolved questions of reform.
