A deadly week that exposes deeper flaws
At least 170 villagers were massacred in Kwara State this week in what has been described as the deadliest attack of 2026. Homes were burnt, families torn apart, and whole communities left to bury neighbours and loved ones. In Katsina, more killings underscored how deeply insecurity has taken root across northern Nigeria.
These are not isolated incidents but part of a persistent and expanding crisis, despite repeated government assurances and millions spent on security. Armed groups continue to adapt, splinter, and strike with devastating effect, leaving citizens asking whether the nation’s approach is truly sustainable.
Military might versus everyday reality
Since the insurgency in the northeast began over a decade ago, Nigeria’s security strategy has leaned heavily on the military — deploying troops, launching air strikes, and attempting to crush militant networks. There have been tactical successes, including retaking territories and degrading some armed groups.
But analysts warn that this reactive, force-first approach does not address the root causes: unemployment, poverty, marginalisation, and political grievances continue to drive recruitment into armed groups. Without tackling these, violence tends to resurface as soon as military operations end.
Weak foundations threaten progress
Experts point to structural weaknesses that undermine the security strategy:
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Poor intelligence gathering: Limited technology, coordination problems, and low community trust make it hard to anticipate threats.
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Outdated legal frameworks: Current laws struggle to keep up with cybercrime, cross-border movements, and evolving militant tactics.
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Underpowered local responses: Villages often wait hours or days for security forces to arrive, leaving communities exposed.
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Climate pressures: Resource scarcity and environmental stress add new layers of vulnerability to already fragile regions.
In short, the system is built to respond, not prevent.
The human factor: trust matters most
Perhaps the most decisive ingredient in lasting security is community trust. Where locals believe in the security forces and the government, they are more likely to cooperate and resist militant influence. Where trust is low, armed groups exploit fear and neglect to embed themselves deeper into daily life.
Recent attacks showed warning signs were reportedly ignored, leaving villagers vulnerable — a stark reminder that flags and troops alone do not guarantee safety.
What sustainable security would look like
To break the cycle of violence, Nigeria needs a balanced approach:
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Economic revitalisation and job creation in affected regions
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Expanded education and youth programmes
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Strong local policing and community engagement
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Legal and policy reforms that match evolving threats
Across Africa and globally, sustainable security is now understood as a blend of hard and soft power — combining defence with development, diplomacy, and dialogue. Nigeria is slowly acknowledging this reality, but progress remains uneven.
The bottom line
Heavy reliance on force alone is not enough. Without stronger intelligence, social interventions, and genuine trust-building, the cycle of violence is likely to continue.
For many Nigerians, that means insecurity remains a daily reality, not an occasional headline. The question is no longer just whether the military can fight back — it’s whether Nigeria can build a peace that lasts.
